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Sunday, April 14, 2024

Fears for the future of the Conservative Party if they lose the next election

With the  demand from Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer for the PM to call a general election, many in Westminster are predicting devastating consequences if they lose.

With defection by some Tory MPs already to the Reform UK Party, there are also predictions that a negative election result could lead to a vote on Sunak’s leadership. Leading polling experts predict that in the upcoming local elections, the Tories could lose as much as 500 seats.

Speaking on the programme, ‘Talking Politics’ political expert Robert Peston commented:

“If I talk to senior Tories about this they say: When we lose, the Tory Party will break up, and there will be a new party – it may be called the conservative Party or not, but they say this is an enormously important part in their history and they have to decide who they stand for”

But how likely is that to happen?  As pressure mounts to call an election, there are emerging figures that put the chances of Rishi Sunak’s administration in a negative light. Leading polling expert, Sir John Curtice has even predicted that there is only a 1% chance of the Tories winning the next election.

There may be several factors behind this, but many are pointing to a feeling of disillusionment with the Tories, along with controversial budget decisions such as high interest rates, and internal strife within the party itself.

This has been demonstrated by MPs leaving for the rapidly growing Reform UK party – notably Dan Barker, Conservative candidate for Mayor of Manchester. He stated:

“Delighted to be joining the new home of conservatism with Reform UK. Reform represents the ordinary people of this country.”

He has stated that he left because he believes that the Conservative Party had, “given up” on the North of England, choosing instead to focus on the so – called, “Blue Wall” seats in the Southeast and Southwest.

It remains to be seen if Mr Barker’s disillusionment with the Conservative Party, and the polling predictions will be reflected in the upcoming local elections.

Mr Sunak, however, has shown confidence in winning the next election. Speaking with GB News, he commented:

“And that’s how we are going to get them, because we are going to win the next election.”

Although the polls are not in the Tories favour, it’s important to remember that political landscapes can change rapidly, and the outcome of elections can often be unpredictable – and the Conservatives have certainly had strong results in previous elections.



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